PVTIME – A newly released analysis warns Germany could lose around EUR 550 billion in cumulative energy sector revenue by 2045 if it fails to establish a durable long-term regulatory framework for offshore wind development.
The research, published on 15 October 2026 by wind:research, contrasts the country’s statutory target of 70GW of offshore wind capacity by 2045 with a downside scenario defined by inconsistent policy and delayed project rollout. Under this less favourable projection, installed offshore wind capacity would only reach 34GW by 2045, representing a 36GW shortfall against national goals. The model also forecasts the loss of approximately 21,000 full-time jobs within Germany’s offshore wind supply chain in this policy constrained case.
The study quantifies widening annual revenue gaps across the projection timeline. Annual sector revenue would fall to EUR 8 billion by 2030 and EUR 4 billion by 2045, with the annual revenue deficit reaching EUR 53 billion by the mid-century mark, leading to the total cumulative loss estimate.
The German Federal Offshore Wind Association, which has shared the study outcomes, states this capacity deficit would undermine national decarbonisation targets by slowing electrification across heating, transport and heavy industry. Industry representatives are calling for revisions to the Offshore Wind Energy Act currently under parliamentary review. They advocate for bilateral contracts for difference to boost investor confidence and maintain a steady pipeline of viable offshore wind projects.
The report supplements prior work by wind:research into domestic value creation from offshore wind. It confirms stable regulation is essential to capture the full economic and climate benefits of Germany’s offshore wind expansion. No federal public funding commitments have been announced in response to the findings at publication.
