CHANGCHUN, China, Oct. 23, 2019 /PVTIME/ -- DNV GL's Energy Transition Outlook indicates global temperatures rise by 2.4 degrees C by the end of the century. Energy experts identify a combination of technology measures to curb global warming which includes: Boost solar power more than 10 times to 5 TW, wind power by 5 times to 3 TW and increase battery production for EVs 50-fold by 2030. DNV GL calls for extraordinary policy action to advance renewables, new decarbonization technologies and systems, electrical vehicles and energy efficiency.
The energy transition requires more than 10 times solar and
5 times wind power in combination with other technology measures to limit
global warming to well below 2 degrees C and meet
the targets of the Paris Agreement, according to DNV GL's latest Energy
Transition Outlook: Power Supply and Use report. The report finds that the
energy transition is gathering pace more quickly than previously thought but
the rate is still too slow to limit global temperatures rising by well below 2 degrees C as set out in the Paris Agreement.
At the projected pace, DNV GL's forecast indicates a world
that is most likely to be 2.4 degrees C warmer
at the end of this century than in the immediate pre-industrial period. The
technology already exists to curb emissions enough to hit the climate target.
What is needed to ensure this happens are far-reaching policy decisions.
DNV GL recommends that the following technology measures
are put in place to help close the emissions gap, the difference between the
forecasted rate at which our energy system is decarbonizing and the pace we
need to reach, to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees
C as set out by the Paris Agreement.
This combination of measures includes:
1. Grow solar power by more than
ten times to 5TW and wind by 5 times to 3TW by 2030, which would meet 50% of
the global electricity use per year.
2. 50-fold increase in production of batteries for the 50 million electric
vehicles needed per year by 2030, alongside investments in new technology to
store excess electric energy and solutions that allow our electricity grids to
cope with the growing influx of solar and wind power.
3. Create new infrastructure for charging electric vehicles on a large scale.
4. More than $1.5trn of annual investment needed
for the expansion and reinforcement of power grids by 2030, including
ultra-high-voltage transmission networks and extensive demand-response
solutions to balance variable wind and solar power.
5. Increase global energy efficiency improvements by 3.5% per year within the
6. Green hydrogen to heat buildings and industry, fuel transport and make use
of excess renewable energy in the power grid.
7. For the heavy industry sector: increased electrification of manufacturing
processes, including electrical heating. Onsite renewable sources combined with
8. Heat-pump technologies and improved insulation.
9. Massive rail expansion both for city commuting and long-distance passenger
and cargo transport.
10. Rapid and wide deployment of carbon capture, utilization and storage
The staggering pace of the energy transition continues. DNV
GL's report forecasts that by 2050 power generation from solar photovoltaic and
wind energy will be 36,000 terawatt hours per year, more than 20 times
today's output. Greater China and India will have the largest share of solar energy by
mid-century, with a 40% share of global installed PV capacity in China, followed by the Indian Subcontinent at 17%.
Globally, renewable energy will provide almost 80% of
the world's electricity by 2050 according to the report. The
electrification will see increasing use of heat pumps, electric arc furnaces
and an electric vehicle revolution, with 50% of all new cars sold in 2032
being electric vehicles.
Despite this rapid pace, the energy transition is not fast
enough. DNV GL's forecast indicates that, alarmingly, for a 1.5 degrees C warming limit, the remaining carbon budget
will be exhausted as early as 2028, with an overshoot of 770 Gt CO2 in
"Our research shows that technology has the power to
close the emissions gap and create a clean energy future. But time is against
us. Those technology measures can only be successful if they are supported by
extraordinary policy action. We are calling for government policies to expand
and adapt power grids to accommodate the rise of renewables, economic stimulus
for energy efficiency measures and regulatory reform to accelerate the
electrification of transport," said Ditlev Engel,
CEO of DNV GL Energy. "Governments, businesses and society as a whole need
to change the prevailing mindset from 'business-as-usual' to
'business-as-unusual' to fast-track the energy transition."
The report also demonstrates that the energy transition is
affordable, the world will spend an ever-smaller share of GDP on energy.
Global expenditure on energy is currently 3.6% of GDP but that will fall to
1.9% by 2050. This is due to the plunging costs of renewables and other
efficiencies, allowing for greater investment to accelerate the transition.
DNV GL appeals to all 197 countries that signed the Paris
Agreement to raise and realize increased ambitions for their updated Nationally
Determined Contributions by 2020. In a snapshot of the first NDCs submitted to
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change secretariat, 75%
currently refer to renewable energy, and 58% to energy efficiency. DNV GL calls
on political leaders that both these percentages need to be 100% in the second
To read the Energy Transition
Outlook: Power Supply and Use report, you can download the report free of
The report's forecast data sets are also available to
download from DNV GL's data platform Veracity.
About DNV GL
DNV GL is a global quality assurance and risk management
company. Driven by our purpose of safeguarding life, property and the
environment, we enable our customers to advance the safety and sustainability
of their business. We provide classification, technical assurance, software and
independent expert advisory services to the maritime, oil & gas, power and
renewables industries. We also provide certification, supply chain and data
management services to customers across a wide range of industries. Operating
in more than 100 countries, our experts are dedicated to helping customers make
the world safer, smarter and greener.
DNV GL delivers world-renowned testing, certification and
advisory services to the energy value chain including renewables and energy
management. Our expertise spans onshore and offshore wind power, solar,
conventional generation, transmission and distribution, smart grids, and
sustainable energy use, as well as energy markets and regulations. Our experts
support customers around the globe in delivering a safe, reliable, efficient,
and sustainable energy supply.
Learn more at www.dnvgl.com/power-renewables.
SOURCE: DNV GL