PVTIME – The technical consulting firm Intertek CEA has published its Q4 2025 Market Intelligence Report, which predicts a prolonged upward cycle for US solar module prices. This trend is expected to be exacerbated by tariffs resulting from the US Department of Commerce’s Section 232 investigation into polysilicon imports.
According to the report, US imports of PV materials will be subject to four tariff and tax measures throughout 2026. These include anti-dumping and countervailing duties on PV, Section 232 tariffs, and a 10% import tax under Section 122. The Section 122 tax, implemented on 20 February 2026, has replaced the prior tariff framework and will further increase import costs.
Intertek CEA forecasts that Section 232 tariffs will make imported modules uneconomical for most US buyers. Figures from the supply side show that US domestic module manufacturers had scaled annual capacity to 45GW by the end of 2025, which is sufficient to meet the country’s total solar installation demand for that year.
The domestic solar module supply chain is expected to reach 60GW by 2026, with an additional 16–20GW expected to become operational in early 2027. However, a critical constraint remains in domestic solar cell supply, as the construction of multiple planned cell factories has been delayed, with most not expected to achieve substantial capacity increases before late 2026.
The report outlines specific applicable rates for polysilicon, ingots/wafers and cells using a baseline scenario for Section 232 tariffs. Finished modules are anticipated to face non-exempt tariffs, which will redirect market procurement towards domestic products and drive up module prices.
As of Q1 2026, the prices of certain domestic modules that qualified for production subsidies remained broadly aligned with those of imported alternatives. The full blocking of crystalline silicon module imports via Section 232 tariffs is likely to result in significant price increases for domestic modules. The US Department of Commerce is set to issue detailed Section 232 implementation rules this spring.
Intertek’s analysis of imported modules manufactured using Chinese materials suggests that the relevant tariffs will significantly reduce the profit margins of such suppliers in the foreseeable future.
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