January 27, 2014—EnergyTrend indicates that orders haven’t been cut substantially after China-USA solar trade war took place. ITC estimates to announce the result by the end of February. If the case is established, the US Department of Commerce (DoC) will continue to investigate regarding subsidy and product dumping. EnergyTrend projects that it’s not going to affect Taiwanese manufacturers until this March.
“Currently, full-production status remains for Taiwan’s wafer manufacturers. Instead of losing orders due to USA’s anti-dumping and countervailing action, there are more orders lined up in February. As for March market forecast, evaluation can’t be made until things become clearer after the Chinese Lunar New Year. In terms of cell manufacturers, production will still be fully-utilized in February, with certain manufacturers revising the price upward. But less working days in February may lead to sales revenue drop,” said Arthur Hsu, research manager of EnergyTrend.
In February, high-efficiency wafer price will continue to increase. The quotes for major manufacturers have exceeded US$1.0/piece while current price is between US$1.03-1.05/piece. For cells, price for high-efficiency products will also increase. The quotes for first-tier manufacturers have come to US$0.41-0.42/watt while the rest of manufacturers remained at US$0.4/watt.
Judging from last week’s spot market, Chinese manufacturers’ utilization rate has started to drop because operators continually went home to celebrate Chinese Lunar New Year. Yet, both Taiwanese and Chinese Manufacturers remained optimistic about the overall market condition after New Year. EnergyTrend projects that price in February will reflect an uptrend. But price may fluctuate in the end of February since ITC will announce the result for anti-dumping and countervailing investigation by then.
For poly, Chinese poly price remained high. The quotation in February may reach RMB154/kg while actual price may be around RMB145/kg. However, most manufacturers have filled up their inventory as it approaches the New Year, thus recent trading volume has begun to decrease. Impacted by the increased Chinese poly price, last week’s average price came to US$19.207/kg, a 2.34% rise.
For multi-si wafers, supply shortage issue for high-efficiency products will go on in February. Manufacturers have continued to revise the price upward, which caused spot price to increase as well. Last week’s average price reached US$0.989/piece, a 1.02% rise. As for mono-si wafers, last week’s average price slowly increased to US$1.166/piece, a 0.09% rise.
For cells, there will be no changes toward February demand and utilization rate will still be high. While Chinese manufacturers’ price remained steady, Taiwanese manufacturers will revise the price upward slightly. Last week’s average price came to US$0.396/watt, a 0.76% rise.
For modules, since the result for anti-dumping and countervailing investigation hasn’t been finalized and utilization rate for Chinese manufacturers has continued to drop due to the Chinese New Year, last week’s price remained at US$0.66/watt.
