PVTIME – In its recently published report, 2025 to 2029 Global Solar Market Outlook, SolarPowerEurope (SPE) forecasts a significant slowdown in the growth of global PV installations by 2025.
In a neutral scenario, global new PV capacity is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year to 655GW. While this is still a significant absolute increase, it pales in comparison to the remarkable 33% growth seen in 2024, when 597GW of new capacity was installed.
The SPE report highlights several factors that could hinder growth in 2025. Policy direction in the world’s two largest PV markets, China and the United States, is seen as a potential damper on growth. In addition, the failure of European Union member states to effectively implement a unified policy framework also contributes to the subdued outlook.
The report presents a range of forecasts for 2025. A conservative estimate is that new PV installations could fall by 8% year-on-year to 548GW. However, if component prices remain low and combined with policy stimulus in China, the market could see a significant boost. In an optimistic scenario, new installations could rise by almost 30% to 774GW.
The solar power market in 2024 was dominated by China, which accounted for 55% of global new installations. China added 329GW of new PV capacity, a 30% increase on the previous year. The United States was a strong performer, with a record 50GW of new installations, representing 54% year-on-year growth. India also saw an astonishing 145% growth, with 30.7GW of new capacity added. Together, the top ten PV markets accounted for 81% of all new installations in 2024. Brazil and Germany rounded out the top five with 18.9GW and 17.4GW of new capacity respectively.
To reach the cumulative target of 8GW by 2030 set by the Global Solar Council, the world will need to install an average of around 1GW of new solar capacity each year. According to SPE, under a neutral scenario, annual new photovoltaic (PV) installations are expected to reach 930GW by 2029. In an optimistic scenario, this figure could exceed 1.2TW. The target proposed by the SPE of installing 1TW of new capacity per year by 2030 is well within the realm of possibility.
 forecasts a significant slowdown in the growth of global PV installations by 2025. In a neutral…){kind=link}