EIA: US Wind-Solar Share Rises to 21% by 2027 Despite Policy Headwinds

PVTIME – In a report dated 16 January, the US EIA stated that wind and solar power are projected to account for around 21% of total US electricity generation by 2027, up from 18% in 2025. By contrast, generation from the three major dispatchable sources, namely natural gas, coal and nuclear power, is expected to fall from 75% in 2025 to around 72% in 2027. Total US electricity output is expected to reach 4.423 trillion kWh by 2027, marking a 1.1% increase in 2026 and a 2.6% increase in 2027, up from 4.26 trillion kWh in 2025.

Utility-scale solar power is set to be the fastest-growing source of electricity generation, increasing from 29 billion kWh last year to 42.4 billion kWh in 2027. Nearly 70GW of new solar capacity is expected to come online this year and next, representing a 49% increase on last year, with a significant proportion of this in Texas. Solar generation feeding into the ERCOT grid in Texas could potentially double between 2025 and 2027. Wind power, traditionally concentrated in central US regions such as the MISO-operated grid, will experience limited growth due to the slow addition of new capacity there. Over the same period, natural gas and coal shares will drop from 40% to 39% and from 17% to 15% respectively.

This forecast emerges as the Trump administration tightens restrictions on renewables. On 20 January 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order temporarily halting offshore wind leases across all outer continental shelf areas. A further order on 7 July 2025 ended federal subsidies for wind and solar projects, with the administration citing their unreliability and their dependence on foreign-controlled supply chains. Subsequently, the Interior Department moved to implement policies that would end the use of unreliable energy sources, while Secretary Doug Burgum issued an order in August to curb solar and wind projects deemed to be environmentally harmful, thereby ensuring the optimal use of federal land for energy projects.

These measures are facing legal challenges. On 8 December 2025, Massachusetts District Judge Patti Saris overturned the January wind lease order, ruling that it violated the statutory requirement for agencies to conclude matters within a reasonable timeframe. She noted that no permits had been issued since the ban, and that the absence of a timeline for a full assessment breached the law. The Sierra Club welcomed the ruling, stating that Americans need cheaper, more reliable energy without compromising their health or the environment, and vowing to push for more wind projects to reduce costs and create stable union jobs. Meanwhile, on 15 January, the Energy Department revived the National Coal Council, reversing the Biden-era decision to disband it. The Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, stated that premature coal plant closures under the Biden administration had driven up prices. He added that the administration had saved 15GW of coal capacity and would be partnering with the industry to sustain coal production and the power supply.