PVTIME – Brazil’s growth in solar photovoltaic installations is set to slow, with the Brazilian Association of Solar Photovoltaic Energy forecasting a 7% contraction in the total scale of installations in 2026 compared to the previous year. The association cites three key factors putting pressure on the industry: high interest rates, regulatory barriers, and the 25% import tariff on solar panels introduced by the Lula administration in June 2025.
A report from XP Investments corroborates this downward trend, stating that reduced power generation and high interest rates will hinder the development of Brazil’s solar sector in 2026. Data shows that, without the import tariff, energy producers would have been expected to create 396,000 jobs and contribute 13 billion reais in tax revenue in 2025. However, under current federal policies, Brazilian solar power generation has fallen by 24%, with related investments cut by around 10 billion reais.
The Brazilian Federal Senate is currently reviewing Bill 4607/2024, which was proposed by Marcos Rogério, a senator from the Progressive Party in Roraima. The bill seeks to cap the solar panel import tariff at 9.6%, thus reversing the Lula administration’s earlier increase. Rogério has stated that the 25% tariff is an abuse of authority and offers no benefit to the domestic industry, as Brazil’s local production cannot meet the growing market demand of the sector.
First submitted in 2024, the bill is being overseen by Coalition Party Senator Sérgio Moro from Paraná, but it has yet to make substantive progress. Industry insiders note that, during Jair Bolsonaro’s administration, the tariff on solar panel imports was set at zero to boost imports and renewable energy development. Since the Lula administration took office in 2023, however, the tariff has gradually increased, first to 6%, then to 9.6%, and finally to 25% in 2024. The government has justified these increases as a means of supporting the domestic photovoltaic industry.
Scan the QR code to follow PVTIME official account on Wechat for latest news on PV+ES
